EPSOFF · Season V · Week 7

The Tape

Pat scored 139.10, beat Logan by 14.04, and has a win. Alex scored 101.62, the lowest score of the week, and lost to Ernie by 41.80. He now shares first place at 5–2 with Michael and Ernie. Brent scored 148.70 and beat all nine teams.

Blowout: Ernie by 41.80 · Closest: Michael by 3.46 · High: Brent 148.70 · Low: Alex 101.62 · Median: 126.48

Manuel “Meño” DraftErnie143.42 – 101.62Lex Needs Top BrotherAlex
Big LegsPat139.10 – 125.06Head HunchoLogan
LA LumberjacksBrent148.70 – 135.62Captain JackJerome
Ron MexicoLouis127.90 – 115.50Kristi Yamagucci ManeAndrew
Dallas SocksMichael118.44 – 114.98Hello SlursNatchez

01 · THE HONEST STANDINGSThree teams at 5–2. Pat has a win.

Record next to all-play (your record against every team, every week) and the median record (did you beat half the league). Luck is real wins minus the wins your scores earned. Lucky and Robbed are flagged at a full win either way.

MgrRecordPFAll-playvs MedianLuckVerdict
Alex5–21001.2442–215–2+0.33—
Michael5–2984.9835–283–4+1.11Lucky
Ernie5–2978.0839–246–1+0.67—
Brent4–31025.3244–195–2−0.89—
Louis4–3932.5636–274–30.00—
Natchez4–3868.6220–432–5+1.78Lucky
Andrew3–4891.3630–333–4−0.33—
Logan3–4815.5217–461–6+1.11Lucky
Jerome1–6931.1230–334–3−2.33Robbed
Pat1–6852.6622–412–5−1.44Robbed

Alex lost to Ernie by 41.80, the biggest margin of the week, and his lead is gone. Michael and Ernie are 5–2 with him. Alex is 42–21 on all-play. Brent is 4–3 and 44–19 on all-play, now the best all-play in the league. Brent also has the most points for, 1025.32. Ernie and Michael have each won four straight. Ernie is 6–1 against the median. Michael is 3–4 against the median and is 5–2 anyway. Natchez is 4–3 on a 20–43 all-play, with +1.78 luck, the most in the league.

Pat beat Logan by 14.04 for his first win of the season. He is 1–6. Logan is 3–4 on a 17–46 all-play, the worst all-play in the league. Jerome is 1–6 on a 30–33 all-play, and his luck is −2.33, the lowest in the league. Pat has faced 1006.44 points, the most in the league and more than any team has scored except Brent. Natchez has faced the fewest, 826.36.

02 · THE MEDIANJerome was robbed for the third time. Michael stole another.

Jerome’s standing request since Week 5. The median is the middle of the ten scores — the average of the fifth and sixth. Robbed = beat the median and lost. Stole = missed the median and won. Every prior week is re-pulled from Yahoo before this page is written.

WeekMedianAverageAll ten scores, low to high (5th and 6th in bold)
Week 1144.39138.9399.46, 108.26, 121.00, 136.26, 141.72, 147.06, 150.30, 152.12, 165.06, 168.06
Week 2125.50125.7599.70, 104.08, 106.08, 116.54, 121.32, 129.68, 132.82, 136.96, 153.06, 157.22
Week 3144.03135.2486.66, 112.44, 116.96, 126.20, 141.06, 147.00, 148.44, 154.38, 154.54, 164.72
Week 4133.39136.83108.74, 114.46, 126.52, 131.72, 132.70, 134.08, 150.42, 151.48, 156.08, 162.08
Week 5148.48146.6895.28, 107.90, 134.86, 140.14, 141.80, 155.16, 156.58, 173.30, 180.86, 180.92
Week 6122.71117.6992.92, 94.08, 99.86, 118.60, 120.68, 124.74, 126.80, 127.76, 132.04, 139.40
Week 7126.48127.03101.62, 114.98, 115.50, 118.44, 125.06, 127.90, 135.62, 139.10, 143.42, 148.70

Re-checked against Yahoo on October 26. All sixty team scores for Weeks 1–6 were re-pulled player by player and matched the files exactly: no stat corrections this week. Every median above is the average of the two bold scores.

MgrRecordvs MedianRobbedStoleGap
Ernie5–26–110−1
Brent4–35–210−1
Alex5–25–2000
Jerome1–64–330−3
Louis4–34–3000
Andrew3–43–4000
Michael5–23–402+2
Pat1–62–510−1
Natchez4–32–502+2
Logan3–41–602+2

This week’s middle two were Logan’s 125.06 and Louis’s 127.90. Logan missed by 1.42 and lost. Logan is 1–6 against the median.

Jerome scored 135.62, beat the median by 9.14, and lost to Brent, who had the highest score of the week. Jerome is the only manager robbed three times. Nobody else has been robbed more than once.

Michael scored 118.44, under the median, and beat Natchez by 3.46. That is Michael’s second steal. Michael has scored under 120 twice this season, 118.60 and 118.44, both in the last two weeks. He won both games. Natchez set a perfect lineup and lost the closest game of the week. Pat beat the median for the second time this season, and this time it came with a win. The league now has six robberies and six steals.

03 · WEEK OVER WEEKBrent climbed five places to first. Alex slid eight, to last.

Every score of the season, the weekly scoring rank, and the move from Week 6 to Week 7 only.

MgrWk1Wk2Wk3Wk4Wk5Wk6Wk7Weekly rankWk6→7
Brent136.26129.68147.00162.08180.92120.68148.707→5→5→1→1→6→1+5
Ernie147.0699.70148.44156.08156.58126.80143.425→10→4→2→4→4→2+2
Pat99.46116.54126.20108.74134.86127.76139.1010→7→7→10→8→3→3—
Jerome150.30104.08154.38131.72155.1699.86135.624→9→3→7→5→8→4+4
Louis165.06121.3286.66150.42141.80139.40127.902→6→10→4→6→1→5−4
Logan108.26106.08116.96126.52107.90124.74125.069→8→8→8→9→5→6−1
Michael141.72132.82141.06151.48180.86118.60118.446→4→6→3→2→7→7—
Andrew152.12136.96164.72132.7095.2894.08115.503→3→1→6→10→9→8+1
Natchez121.00153.06112.44134.08140.1492.92114.988→2→9→5→7→10→9+1
Alex168.06157.22154.54114.46173.30132.04101.621→1→2→9→3→2→10−8

Brent scored 148.70, 28.02 more than in Week 6, and went from sixth in the weekly ranking to first. Jerome had the biggest gain, 35.76, from 99.86 to 135.62. It was not enough. Pat’s 139.10 is the most he has scored in any week this season.

Alex went from second to tenth. Before this week he had not scored under 114.46 all season. His 101.62 was 30.42 under his Week 6 and 46.97 under what his own starters were projected for at kickoff — the biggest miss of the week. Jalen Coker scored 1.90 at receiver, Eddy Pineiro 1.50 and the 49ers defense 0.50. Louis slid four places, from first to fifth, and still beat Andrew.

04 · THE COACHING TAXMichael left the most and won anyway

Points left on the bench: your optimal lineup minus what you actually started.

MgrActualBestLeftWk6
Michael118.44149.5431.103.70
Logan125.06153.3828.3211.10
Alex101.62121.3219.700.00
Louis127.90141.3013.401.40
Ernie143.42153.8210.403.20
Brent148.70156.407.700.00
Andrew115.50122.507.000.00
Jerome135.62139.824.2034.40
Pat139.10139.520.420.10
Natchez114.98114.980.0031.42

Michael left 31.10, the most in the league this week, and still beat Natchez by 3.46. Three swaps account for all of it. Cam Skattebo scored 23.60 on his bench while Chase Brown started and scored 11.30. Devaughn Vele scored 16.40 on the bench while Garrett Wilson started and scored 4.60. Dallas Goedert scored 9.80 on the bench while Sam LaPorta started and scored 2.80. His best lineup was 149.54.

Logan left 28.32. Joe Burrow scored 29.38 on his bench while Jordan Love started and scored 17.96. Blake Corum scored 20.10 on the bench while Isaiah Likely scored 3.20 at flex. His best lineup was 153.38. Pat scored 139.10.

Natchez set the only perfect lineup of the week. Pat left 0.42: Tyler Shough outscored Kyler Murray by exactly that. Jerome left 4.20 — Carnell Tate for Germie Bernard — and his best lineup, 139.82, still trailed Brent’s 148.70.

Losses your own bench would have won: your best possible lineup that week beat what your opponent actually scored. Opponents held fixed.

MgrRecordBench winsWeeksBest-lineup record
Jerome1–64Wk2, Wk4, Wk5, Wk65–2
Logan3–43Wk4, Wk5, Wk76–1
Michael5–22Wk1, Wk37–0
Pat1–61Wk12–5
Brent4–31Wk25–2
Andrew3–40—3–4
Louis4–30—4–3
Natchez4–30—4–3
Alex5–20—5–2
Ernie5–20—5–2

Logan’s bench would have won three of his four losses — Weeks 4, 5 and 7. Jerome’s bench would have won four of his six losses. This week was not one of them. Both of Michael’s losses were bench losses. With his best lineup every week, Michael would have won all seven.

Season to date, Logan has left the most on his bench, 169.68, and Andrew the least, 51.66.

05 · THE FIRST TRADEClosed: Louis by 22.10

Every trade this season, logged from Yahoo’s transaction page. Each side is scored on everything its players score from the week the trade took effect — started, benched, or dropped. Points scored while a player is on nobody’s roster come from Yahoo’s weekly player page and are marked FA.

PlayerMovedWk5Wk6Wk7Since trade
DK MetcalfLogan → Louis5.8020.309.6035.70
TreVeyon HendersonLouis → Logan5.803.50 FA4.30 FA13.60

Metcalf scored 9.60 for Louis this week, at receiver, in a win. Henderson scored 4.30 and was still unclaimed when Week 7 ended. Since the trade, Metcalf has 35.70 and Henderson 13.60: Louis by 22.10. No trades were made this week. The thread retires with this edition; the ledger stays on the page.

06 · WEEK 7 PERFORMANCESThe best of it

Every starter and bench player on a league roster, ranked.

PlayerPtsMgr
Tony Pollard39.50Louis
Jaxon Smith-Njigba31.80Brent
Tee Higgins30.80Pat
Zay Flowers29.70Ernie
Drake Maye29.44Michael
Joe Burrow BN29.38Logan
Bucky Irving29.00Jerome
Trey McBride27.10Natchez
Quinshon Judkins26.90Logan
Amon-Ra St. Brown26.20Andrew

Tony Pollard scored 39.50 for Louis, the top score of the week. Tee Higgins scored 30.80 for Pat in his first win. One of the ten sat on a bench: Joe Burrow’s 29.38, for Logan, who lost.

07 · LEADERSBy request: Jerome’s top ten at every position, Week 7

Every position, this week and the season, straight out of Yahoo under our scoring. Tap a position to open it. Red means nobody in this league owns him. Ties share a rank. Yahoo had not yet booked Monday night (Dallas at Philadelphia) into its season totals when this was pulled, so those players’ Week 7 points are added from the weekly page.

26 of the 62 weekly rows belong to nobody, down from 31 of sixty in Week 6. 7 of the twelve kickers tied into the top ten are on waivers, and 5 of the top ten tight ends. KC Concepcion Jr., dropped by Jerome on October 21, scored 23.70 on waivers. Season to date, 7 of sixty are unowned, all of them kickers and defenses.

The bye holes in Section 08 line up with the wire. As of Monday night, the top quarterback of Week 7, Bo Nix (29.78), was on waivers. So were the top defense, the Buccaneers (27.00, and 74.00 for the season), and the top kicker, Cairo Santos (15.00). Denver, Tampa Bay and Chicago all play in Week 8.

Quarterback — 5 of the week’s top ten unowned

Week 7

#PlayerOwnerPts
1Bo Nix DenWAIVERS29.78
2Drake Maye NEMichael29.44
3Joe Burrow CinLogan29.38
4Malik Willis MiaWAIVERS28.52
5Geno Smith NYJWAIVERS24.98
6Dak Prescott DalNatchez23.78
7Caleb Williams ChiAlex22.62
8Kirk Cousins LVLouis20.90
9Michael Penix Jr. AtlWAIVERS20.42
10Deshaun Watson CleWAIVERS19.72

Season to date

#PlayerOwnerPts
1Josh Allen BufLouis176.76
2Brock Purdy SFJerome159.02
3Drake Maye NEMichael154.46
4Joe Burrow CinLogan138.12
5Kirk Cousins LVLouis136.98
6Tyler Shough NOPat136.94
7Dak Prescott DalNatchez135.64
8C.J. Stroud HouErnie134.68
9Jared Goff DetLogan133.52
10Jordan Love GBLogan133.32
Running back — 0 of the week’s top ten unowned

Week 7

#PlayerOwnerPts
1Tony Pollard TenLouis39.50
2Bucky Irving TBJerome29.00
3Quinshon Judkins CleLogan26.90
4Javonte Williams DalBrent25.50
5Rhamondre Stevenson NEPat25.00
6Cam Skattebo NYGMichael23.60
7Christian McCaffrey SFMichael23.00
8Braelon Allen NYJErnie21.90
9Ashton Jeanty LVErnie21.60
9Josh Jacobs GBAlex21.60

Season to date

#PlayerOwnerPts
1Jahmyr Gibbs DetAlex192.00
2Kenneth Walker III KCAndrew169.20
3Bijan Robinson AtlJerome167.20
4Christian McCaffrey SFMichael155.00
5Jonathan Taylor IndAlex154.50
6Kyren Williams LARErnie152.10
7Javonte Williams DalBrent145.50
8Jaylen Warren PitMichael138.50
9Derrick Henry BalBrent137.70
10D’Andre Swift ChiLouis133.80
Wide receiver — 3 of the week’s top ten unowned

Week 7

#PlayerOwnerPts
1Jaxon Smith-Njigba SeaBrent31.80
2Tee Higgins CinPat30.80
3Zay Flowers BalErnie29.70
4Omar Cooper Jr. NYJWAIVERS26.50
5Amon-Ra St. Brown DetAndrew26.20
6Jameson Williams DetBrent26.10
7Luther Burden III ChiLogan25.70
8CeeDee Lamb DalNatchez24.40
9KC Concepcion Jr. CleWAIVERS23.70
10Tre Tucker LVWAIVERS23.30

Season to date

#PlayerOwnerPts
1Jaxon Smith-Njigba SeaBrent201.16
2CeeDee Lamb DalNatchez157.50
3Christian Watson GBAlex135.50
4Zay Flowers BalErnie131.20
5Chris Olave NOMichael130.60
6Amon-Ra St. Brown DetAndrew130.40
7Malik Nabers NYGJerome124.50
8Puka Nacua LARLouis118.10
9Matthew Golden GBLogan116.60
10Drake London AtlAndrew112.00
Tight end — 5 of the week’s top ten unowned

Week 7

#PlayerOwnerPts
1Trey McBride AriNatchez27.10
2Mason Taylor NYJWAIVERS25.20
3Colston Loveland ChiBrent19.90
4Davis Allen LARWAIVERS18.00
5Tucker Kraft GBErnie14.80
5George Kittle SFAlex14.80
7Eli Raridon NEWAIVERS14.60
8Hunter Henry NEAlex14.10
9Darren Waller CarWAIVERS14.00
10Greg Dulcich MiaWAIVERS13.60

Season to date

#PlayerOwnerPts
1Trey McBride AriNatchez130.20
2Isaiah Likely NYGLogan112.50
3George Kittle SFAlex108.50
4Brock Bowers LVLogan95.50
5Sam LaPorta DetMichael79.40
6Travis Kelce KCErnie74.30
7Tucker Kraft GBErnie74.20
8Tyler Warren IndJerome71.40
9Pat Freiermuth PitPat68.90
10Hunter Henry NEAlex67.60
Kicker — 7 of the week’s top 12 unowned (tied for tenth)

Week 7

#PlayerOwnerPts
1Cairo Santos ChiWAIVERS15.00
2Wil Lutz DenWAIVERS14.00
2Brandon Aubrey DalPat14.00
4Will Reichard MinAndrew13.00
5Chase McLaughlin TBNatchez12.00
6Chris Boswell PitWAIVERS11.00
6Ka’imi Fairbairn HouJerome11.00
6Chad Ryland AriWAIVERS11.00
9Nick Folk AtlWAIVERS10.50
10Matt Gay LVLogan9.00
10Jake Bates DetWAIVERS9.00
10Andre Szmyt CleWAIVERS9.00

Season to date

#PlayerOwnerPts
1Spencer Shrader IndLouis88.50
2Will Reichard MinAndrew81.00
3Chase McLaughlin TBNatchez77.00
4Ka’imi Fairbairn HouJerome76.00
5Chris Boswell PitWAIVERS73.00
5Matt Gay LVLogan73.00
7Chad Ryland AriWAIVERS72.00
8Jason Myers SeaBrent67.50
9Tyler Loop BalErnie65.00
10Cairo Santos ChiWAIVERS63.00
Defense — 6 of the week’s top ten unowned

Week 7

#PlayerOwnerPts
1Buccaneers TBWAIVERS27.00
2Bengals CinWAIVERS12.50
3Falcons AtlWAIVERS12.00
4Seahawks SeaJerome11.50
5Vikings MinMichael10.50
6Packers GBWAIVERS8.50
7Broncos DenPat8.00
7Lions DetWAIVERS8.00
7Steelers PitAndrew8.00
10Colts IndWAIVERS7.50

Season to date

#PlayerOwnerPts
1Vikings MinMichael85.50
2Buccaneers TBWAIVERS74.00
3Seahawks SeaJerome70.00
4Broncos DenPat67.00
5Bears ChiNatchez65.50
6Bengals CinWAIVERS65.00
7Steelers PitAndrew64.50
8Packers GBWAIVERS60.00
9Falcons AtlWAIVERS57.50
9Patriots NEMichael57.50

08 · WEEK 8Eight teams are starting someone with no game

Yahoo’s projections for lineups as they stood Monday night, before waivers. A starting line, not a forecast.

MatchupProjCall
Jerome vs Natchez109.35 – 110.01Natchez by ~1
Pat vs Louis106.04 – 93.20Pat by ~13
Michael vs Andrew102.28 – 135.02Andrew by ~33
Logan vs Ernie111.78 – 122.94Ernie by ~11
Brent vs Alex126.14 – 120.45Brent by ~6
MgrStarters projected at zeroWho
Michael2Christian McCaffrey, Chris Olave
Louis2Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz
Alex2Eddy Pineiro, 49ers
Jerome1Ka’imi Fairbairn
Natchez1Christian Kirk
Pat1Alvin Kamara
Ernie1C.J. Stroud
Brent1Texans

Jerome vs Natchez. Jerome has no kicker with a game: Ka’imi Fairbairn is on bye and there is no other on his roster. Natchez is starting Christian Kirk on bye; his best lineup is 129.28 with Parker Washington and Stefon Diggs in.

Pat vs Louis. Pat is starting Alvin Kamara on bye with James Cook on his bench; his best is 124.25. Louis is starting Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz on bye, with Josh Allen on his bench; his best lineup is 123.15.

Michael vs Andrew. Michael is starting Christian McCaffrey and Chris Olave, both on bye; his best is 115.39. Andrew is starting Breece Hall, listed Out; without him his best is 124.09.

Logan vs Ernie. Logan’s best is 121.26 with Joe Burrow and Saquon Barkley in. Ernie is starting C.J. Stroud on bye; he dropped Jayden Daniels for him on October 22, and his only other quarterback is Lamar Jackson, listed Out.

Brent vs Alex. Brent is starting the Texans on bye and has no other defense; his best is 131.65. Alex has his kicker and defense on bye, both 49ers; his best is 121.39.

Houston, San Francisco and New Orleans are on bye. All five games are first meetings this season. Last week’s five calls went 2 for 5, and one of the five favorites had flipped by kickoff. Logan was the projected favorite by 8.49 and lost by 14.04. Alex was projected to win by 30.22. Ernie won by 41.80.

09 · PREVIOUSLY ON EPSOFFThe season so far, one thread at a time

Every thread carries the week it opened. A thread settled, confirmed or reversed for two straight weeks retires to the closed arcs.

ThreadOpenedWeek 7 beatStatus
Jerome is getting robbedWk1135.62, 9.14 over the 126.48 median, and a loss to Brent with only 4.20 on his bench. His third robbery. Jerome’s bench would have won four of his six losses, but not this one.Growing
Round 3 is a trapWk1Draft-slot correlation 0.03 this week; slots 1–5 averaged 131.45, slots 6–10 122.62.Fading
Pat cannot win a gameWk4139.10, third in the weekly ranking, and a win over the narrator by 14.04. 1–6.Reversed
Nobody works the back end of a rosterWk426 of the 62 weekly leader rows unowned, down from 31. Jerome dropped KC Concepcion Jr.; he scored 23.70 on waivers.Open
Brent is the team to beatWk5148.70, the high score of the week, 9–0 against the field, first in the weekly ranking again. 44–19 all-play, now the best in the league.Growing
Three teams at 5–2Wk7Alex lost to Ernie by 41.80 and his lead is gone. Ernie is 6–1 against the median. Michael has two steals and left 31.10 on his bench this week.Open

Closed arcs

Logan versus the median (Wk5–Wk7) Opened as “he has never beaten it.” He beat it once, in Week 6, and missed by 1.42 in Week 7. The first trade (Wk5–Wk7) Metcalf 35.70, Henderson 13.60. Louis by 22.10. Andrew is the best manager in this league (Wk3–Wk6) Reversed in Week 5 and stayed reversed. Can anyone beat Alex? (Wk1–Wk5) Natchez did in Week 4. Buffalo is carrying Louis (Wk1–Wk5) Reversed in Week 3 and stayed reversed.

One opened, two closed, and one reversed. Pat’s first win came against the man writing this.

10 · WHAT TO WATCHThree open questions

The things Week 8 actually settles.

Last week’s three, answered. Nobody traded. Pat won. And Jerome’s best lineup, 139.82, would still have lost to Brent’s 148.70: this time it was the opponent, not the bench.

Who leaves the tie at 5–2? Andrew projects 135.02, but that counts Breece Hall, listed Out; his best without Hall is 124.09. Michael projects 102.28, with Christian McCaffrey and Chris Olave on bye. Ernie is starting C.J. Stroud on bye and has no other healthy quarterback. Alex draws Brent.

Is Pat for real? He projects 106.04 against Louis, who projects 93.20 — with Josh Allen on his bench.

Does Jerome’s kicker cost him? Jerome and Natchez project 0.66 apart, and Jerome has no kicker with a game.