EPSOFF · Season V · Week 1
What actually happened in Week 1, past the win–loss column — and what it says about the draft everyone is already lying about.
Pulled from Yahoo league 56928 · Sun Sep 20, 8:56 AM PT
Week 2 figures include Thursday and Friday results only.
Week 1 edition, archived. Latest: /tape.
League average 138.93 · Blowout of the week: Alex by 59.80 · Closest: Andrew by 1.82
One week of schedule is noise. All-play — your record if you had played everyone — is the version that isn’t.
| Mgr | Pts | All-play | Real | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex | 168.06 | 9–0 | 1–0 | Earned |
| Louis | 165.06 | 8–1 | 1–0 | Earned |
| Andrew | 152.12 | 7–2 | 1–0 | Earned |
| Jerome | 150.30 | 6–3 | 0–1 | Robbed |
| Ernie | 147.06 | 5–4 | 1–0 | Earned |
| Michael | 141.72 | 4–5 | 0–1 | — |
| Brent | 136.26 | 3–6 | 0–1 | — |
| Natchez | 121.00 | 2–7 | 1–0 | Lucky |
| Logan | 108.26 | 1–8 | 0–1 | — |
| Pat | 99.46 | 0–9 | 0–1 | — |
Jerome posted the fourth-highest score in the league and lost by under two points. Natchez posted the third-worst and is 1–0. Nobody has earned anything yet.
Every point below was on your roster and you chose not to start it.
| Mgr | Actual | Optimal | Left on bench |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pat | 99.46 | 131.56 | −32.10 |
| Alex | 168.06 | 197.66 | −29.60 |
| Ernie | 147.06 | 171.16 | −24.10 |
| Brent | 136.26 | 153.86 | −17.60 |
| Logan | 108.26 | 125.06 | −16.80 |
| Andrew | 152.12 | 168.62 | −16.50 |
| Natchez | 121.00 | 134.70 | −13.70 |
| Michael | 141.72 | 155.00 | −13.28 |
| Louis | 165.06 | 165.76 | −0.70 |
| Jerome | 150.30 | 150.30 | Perfect |
Jerome set a perfect lineup and lost. Pat left more on the bench (32.10) than his margin of defeat (21.54) — he started Kyle Pitts for a zero while David Montgomery put up 30.90 in a jersey nobody saw. Alex could have hung 197.66 on Logan and chose not to. That was not mercy.
This is the most uncomfortable number in the data, and it is not close.
A snake draft is supposed to wash this out. It didn’t. The front of the board produced Gibbs 40.60, Bijan 34.80, Amon-Ra 28.70 and JSN 28.20; the back half got Saquon 12.00, Cook 11.40, Lamb 15.40 and CMC 14.80.
One week is one week, and this will regress. But it is worth saying out loud now, while it’s still early enough to be a conversation instead of an accusation: if this is still negative at Week 4, the custom draft order needs a real argument behind it.
| Round | Avg Wk 1 pts | What it produced |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20.35 | Gibbs and Bijan dragging six bodies |
| 2 | 26.88 | Walker 40.10, Henry 38.80, Allen 36.66, Jeanty 36.20 |
| 3 | 13.35 | The graveyard — worse than R4 and R5 |
| 4 | 18.51 | Quietly the second-best round |
| 5 | 14.68 | Zay Flowers 30.00 and not much else |
| 6 | 12.58 | Where the QBs started being free |
Five of the ten third-rounders in this draft are currently hurt, suspended, or have already busted: A.J. Brown 5.60 and now on IR, Drake London 5.50, George Pickens 5.80, Brock Bowers 0.00 and still doubtful, Nico Collins 21.70 and now out. That isn’t bad luck — it’s a tier the market mispriced and nobody in this league fought it.
Caleb Williams went 39.26 out of Round 10. Jaxson Dart 28.60 out of Round 11. Patrick Mahomes 23.66 out of Round 14. Two of the league’s three best quarterback scores spent Sunday on a bench. Starting QBs averaged 23.35 — nobody needed to spend early, and only four managers did inside five rounds.
The three managers who took a TE inside five rounds — Logan (Bowers, R3), Natchez (McBride, R3), Brent (Loveland, R5) — finished 10th, 8th and 7th in production from their first five picks. Starting TEs averaged 10.92 for the week.
| Mgr | First five picks | Wk 1 pts |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew | WR–RB–WR–RB–QB | 123.32 |
| Ernie | WR–RB–RB–QB–WR | 112.86 |
| Louis | WR–QB–WR–RB–WR | 111.06 |
| Alex | RB–RB–WR–WR–WR | 103.40 |
| Michael | RB–RB–WR–WR–WR | 100.90 |
| Jerome | RB–RB–WR–RB–TE | 93.80 |
| Pat | RB–WR–WR–WR–RB | 90.70 |
| Brent | WR–RB–WR–WR–TE | 83.30 |
| Natchez | WR–RB–TE–RB–RB | 76.30 |
| Logan | RB–RB–TE–WR–QB | 41.96 |
Every roster carries hidden exposure to a handful of offenses. When they go, you go. Week 1 rosters; ties broken by which stack actually scored.
| Mgr | Biggest stack | Spread | % of Wk 1 score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louis | Buffalo ×5 | 9 teams | 46.7% |
| Ernie | Baltimore ×3 | 11 teams | 47.9% |
| Alex | San Francisco ×3 | 11 teams | 8.4% |
| Logan | Cincinnati ×2 | 13 teams | 33.4% |
| Pat | Minnesota ×2 | 13 teams | 31.4% |
| Andrew | Kansas City ×2 | 11 teams | 26.4% |
| Natchez | Dallas ×2 | 11 teams | 25.9% |
| Brent | Seattle ×2 | 11 teams | 25.8% |
| Michael | LA Chargers ×2 | 12 teams | 15.0% |
| Jerome | Arizona ×2 | 12 teams | 9.3% |
Alex and Ernie each stack three from one team. Ernie’s three Ravens produced 47.9% of his score — because they’re Lamar Jackson and Zay Flowers. Alex’s three 49ers produced 8.4% — because they’re Kittle, a kicker, and a receiver who has since gone to IR. Same headcount, six times the exposure. Count the touches, not the helmets.
Louis and Ernie each drew roughly half their opening score from one offense. Louis’s Buffalo bet is compounding — through Thursday night of Week 2, 100% of his 82.62 points are Bills (Allen 44.82, Kincaid 22.50, Shakir 6.80, Bass 4.50, Bills DEF 4.00). Ernie’s Baltimore bet just broke: Zay Flowers is out, and Flowers was 30.00 of his 147.06.
That’s the whole argument about correlation in one league. It doesn’t raise your average — it raises your variance, and you find out which direction on a Wednesday injury report.
Pat and Logan are the two most spread-out rosters in the league — 13 NFL teams each, not counting injured reserve — and they finished 10th and 9th in scoring. Spreading exposure doesn’t create points; it just means you need more things to go right at once.
| NFL team | Pts | Starters | League share | Held by |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore | 109.26 | 4 | 7.9% | Ernie, Brent |
| Chicago | 92.86 | 5 | 6.7% | Alex, Brent, Ernie, Logan, Louis |
| Buffalo | 88.56 | 5 | 6.4% | Louis, Pat |
| Detroit | 79.10 | 3 | 5.7% | Alex, Andrew, Michael |
| Cincinnati | 69.06 | 5 | 5.0% | Ernie, Logan, Michael, Pat |
The league’s most valuable offense sits in two hands. Its second-most sits in five. That’s the asymmetry worth trading against: if you believe in Chicago you can’t get more of it cheaply, and if you want Baltimore you have exactly two phone calls to make.
| Mgr | Total | Top-3 share | Spread | Worst starter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex | 168.06 | 68.2% | 15.87 | −0.50 |
| Brent | 136.26 | 67.7% | 12.11 | 0.00 |
| Pat | 99.46 | 65.2% | 9.10 | 0.00 |
| Ernie | 147.06 | 63.0% | 11.45 | 1.50 |
| Andrew | 152.12 | 62.1% | 12.89 | 1.00 |
| Logan | 108.26 | 59.1% | 7.88 | 1.20 |
| Louis | 165.06 | 56.5% | 10.44 | 7.50 |
| Jerome | 150.30 | 53.7% | 8.07 | 9.00 |
| Michael | 141.72 | 50.9% | 7.91 | 2.00 |
| Natchez | 121.00 | 46.4% | 5.03 | 5.50 |
Two ways to win, and both showed up. Alex won a blowout on three players — 68% of his score — with a defense that scored −0.50. Natchez won a coin flip with the flattest roster in the league and the third-worst total. Top-heavy teams win big and lose big; flat teams win close ones and can’t chase. Louis is the only manager currently doing both.
Points above or below the league average at each lineup slot.
| Mgr | QB | RB | WR | TE | FLEX | K | DEF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex | +15.9 | +26.5 | −17.5 | −7.7 | +17.4 | +2.1 | −7.5 |
| Louis | +13.3 | +0.8 | −6.0 | +9.1 | +4.4 | +4.1 | +0.5 |
| Andrew | +2.4 | −14.7 | +5.5 | −6.8 | +22.8 | −7.9 | +12.0 |
| Jerome | +0.8 | +13.9 | −5.9 | −0.6 | −3.3 | +0.1 | +6.5 |
| Ernie | +3.1 | +10.5 | +4.5 | −1.4 | −8.1 | +5.1 | −5.5 |
| Michael | −8.0 | −7.1 | +22.7 | −1.1 | −0.2 | −6.9 | +3.5 |
| Brent | −8.6 | +21.3 | +5.3 | −10.9 | −6.8 | −1.9 | −1.0 |
| Natchez | −7.5 | −16.1 | −2.0 | +13.6 | −7.5 | +3.1 | −1.5 |
| Logan | −6.2 | −19.1 | −18.0 | +16.9 | −9.8 | +10.1 | −4.5 |
| Pat | −5.2 | −15.8 | +11.4 | −10.9 | −9.0 | −7.4 | −2.5 |
Michael’s receivers were the best in the league by eleven points and he still lost. Logan was bottom-two at RB, WR and flex simultaneously — negative at all three, and only Natchez joined him there — and was carried entirely by a waiver-wire tight end and a kicker. Andrew’s flex was the best edge at any one-player slot in the league, and it was Kenneth Walker, a Round 2 pick.
| Cost | Mgr | Keeper | Wk 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| R2 | Louis | Josh Allen | 36.66 |
| R5 | Ernie | Zay Flowers | 30.00 |
| R2 | Alex | Jonathan Taylor | 28.60 |
| R8 | Brent | Javonte Williams | 25.20 |
| R9 | Michael | Cam Skattebo | 17.10 |
| R7 | Natchez | Emeka Egbuka | 11.30 |
| R6 | Jerome | Rashee Rice | 9.90 |
| R10 | Logan | Quinshon Judkins | 7.50 |
| R3 | Andrew | Drake London | 5.50 |
| R11 | Pat | Kyle Pitts Sr. | 0.00 |
Best value: Brent’s Javonte Williams at an R8 cost — 25.20 from a pick nobody else wanted. Worst: Pat kept Kyle Pitts at R11, got a zero, and dropped him to waivers four days later for Dallas Goedert. Andrew paid an R3 cost for Drake London, got 5.50, and won anyway.
The league spent 13 of its first 30 picks on wide receivers, and WR is exactly where the injury damage landed. Starting WRs averaged 14.86 against 20.63 for running backs — receiver was already the worse bet before anyone got hurt. The teams positioned to survive this are the ones with receiver depth they didn’t pay up for, not the ones holding names.
Move counts: Alex 9, Jerome 5, Logan 5, Natchez 3, Pat 2, Ernie 1 — and Michael, Brent, Andrew and Louis at zero.
Best pickup of the season so far: Logan on Isaiah Likely, 27.80 off the wire, the top tight end score in the league by 3.30 and the only thing standing between Head Huncho and a sub-100 opener.
Nobody has made a trade. Last year this league did four deals in September. The setup for the first one is sitting right there: four managers with zero moves, a receiver injury cluster, and exactly two owners holding the league’s best offense.
Yahoo’s live projected finals as of Sunday morning, with Thursday and Friday results already banked.
Game of the week. The top two scorers in the league. Louis already has 82.62 banked, all of it from Buffalo, with McLaurin, Swift and Henderson still to play. Alex has Caleb Williams, Jonathan Taylor, Watson and Adams left but is without A.J. Brown and Josh Jacobs, and Gibbs already came in 1.84 under projection.
Edge: Louis by ~15 — wider if he weren’t sitting Nacua (19.72) for Godwin (10.22)Andrew banked 35.20 from Amon-Ra St. Brown. Pat has Cook’s 24.40 and needs the rest to land. Credit where due — Pat’s lineup is nearly optimal this week; Stevenson over Evans is the only upgrade left, worth 1.18. Which raises the question of where that discipline was last Sunday.
Edge: Andrew by ~10Loser starts 0–2. LaPorta already went 6.33 over projection for Michael; Brent’s Jameson Williams managed 5.30 and that’s locked. Michael still has a free 2.78 on the table — Garrett Wilson (14.59) benched while a questionable McConkey (11.81) starts. Brent is without Pittman and rolling Loveland at TE after a 0.00 opener.
Edge: Michael by ~8Jerome set a perfect lineup and lost; Logan set a bad one and got destroyed. Bijan projects 25.53. Logan can still find 2.08 by starting DK Metcalf (13.93) over Luther Burden (11.85), and has Bowers at 0.00 again. Jerome has 2.83 available too — Rashee Rice sits behind Deebo Samuel.
Edge: Jerome by ~8 — loser is 0–2 with real problemsTightest game on the board, 4.20 apart — and Ernie is leaving 5.11 on his bench, more than the margin. Chuba Hubbard (14.39) and Josh Downs (10.85) sitting behind Jordan Addison (10.38) and Rome Odunze (9.75), in a week he’s already down Zay Flowers. Natchez has 2.34 of his own available.
Edge: Natchez, barely — on lineup decisions, not rosters