EPSOFF · Season V · Week 2
Alex is 18–0 against the field. Jerome is two points from 2–0 and sitting at 0–2. And last week’s scariest number already regressed.
Pulled from Yahoo league 56928 · Mon Sep 21, after Monday Night Football
Week 3 lineups are as set Monday night, before waivers run.
This page updates every week at the same link — bookmark it.
Blowout of the week: Natchez by 53.36 · Closest: Logan by 2.00 · High: Alex 157.22 · Low: Ernie 99.70
Real record next to all-play — your record against every team, every week. “Luck” is real wins minus the wins your scores earned.
| Mgr | Record | PF | All-play | Luck | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex | 2–0 | 325.28 | 18–0 | +0.00 | Real |
| Andrew | 2–0 | 289.08 | 14–4 | +0.44 | Real |
| Natchez | 2–0 | 274.06 | 10–8 | +0.89 | Lucky |
| Louis | 1–1 | 286.38 | 12–6 | −0.33 | — |
| Michael | 1–1 | 274.54 | 10–8 | −0.11 | — |
| Ernie | 1–1 | 246.76 | 5–13 | +0.44 | Lucky |
| Logan | 1–1 | 214.34 | 3–15 | +0.67 | Lucky |
| Brent | 0–2 | 265.94 | 8–10 | −0.89 | Robbed |
| Jerome | 0–2 | 254.38 | 7–11 | −0.78 | Robbed |
| Pat | 0–2 | 216.00 | 3–15 | −0.33 | — |
Alex has not lost to anyone. Top score in the league both weeks, 18–0 against the field, and a 110.94-point PF lead over the lowest-scoring team. There is no luck in that record — it’s the only one in the league that exactly matches what the scores say.
Jerome is 3.82 points from 2–0. He lost Week 1 by 1.82 with a perfect lineup and Week 2 by 2.00. The second one is on him, though — more on that below.
Natchez answered the fraud allegation. 153.06 and an 8–1 all-play in Week 2. He’s still the luckiest 2–0 in the league, but he’s no longer the worst team to be 2–0.
And in the interest of full disclosure from the person writing this: Logan beat Jerome by two points with the eighth-best score in the league and is 1–1 with a 3–15 all-play. Tied for the worst in EPSOFF with Pat. Enjoy it, everybody.
If we’re going to call other people’s lineups, we keep score on ourselves.
| Matchup | Called | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louis vs Alex | Louis by ~15 | Alex by 35.90 | Miss |
| Andrew vs Pat | Andrew by ~10 | Andrew by 20.42 | Hit |
| Michael vs Brent | Michael by ~8 | Michael by 3.14 | Hit |
| Jerome vs Logan | Jerome by ~8 | Logan by 2.00 | Miss |
| Natchez vs Ernie | Natchez, barely | Natchez by 53.36 | Hit |
Three of five. The Louis miss is the instructive one: he had 82.62 banked from Thursday night and the rest of his roster scored 38.70 across Sunday and Monday combined. Alex’s Davante Adams (41.50) out-scored Louis’s entire non-Buffalo lineup by himself.
Two weeks is the first time anything can be called a trend. Here’s what moved, what held, and what was never real.
| Mgr | Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Change | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natchez | 121.00 | 153.06 | +32.06 | 8th → 2nd |
| Pat | 99.46 | 116.54 | +17.08 | 10th → 7th |
| Logan | 108.26 | 106.08 | −2.18 | 9th → 8th |
| Brent | 136.26 | 129.68 | −6.58 | 7th → 5th |
| Michael | 141.72 | 132.82 | −8.90 | 6th → 4th |
| Alex | 168.06 | 157.22 | −10.84 | 1st → 1st |
| Andrew | 152.12 | 136.96 | −15.16 | 3rd → 3rd |
| Louis | 165.06 | 121.32 | −43.74 | 2nd → 6th |
| Jerome | 150.30 | 104.08 | −46.22 | 4th → 9th |
| Ernie | 147.06 | 99.70 | −47.36 | 5th → 10th |
Louis, Jerome and Ernie each dropped more than 43 points and at least four spots. Only two teams held their spot: Alex at 1st and Andrew at 3rd. That’s the first real separation in the league — two teams are good every week, and everyone else is taking turns.
108.26, then 106.08 — a 2.18-point swing, the steadiest scoring in EPSOFF. Brent (6.58) and Michael (8.90) are also holding a line, but theirs is around 130 and up. Consistency is only a compliment if the number is good.
| Mgr | Wk 1 vs proj | Wk 2 vs proj | Two weeks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex | +51.85 | +19.99 | +71.84 |
| Louis | +47.77 | +12.83 | +60.60 |
| Andrew | +20.15 | +7.75 | +27.90 |
| Michael | +7.46 | +0.46 | +7.92 |
| Logan | −17.61 | −15.79 | −33.40 |
| Pat | −30.05 | −16.38 | −46.43 |
Four teams beat Yahoo’s projection for their own starters in both weeks; two missed in both. The other four flipped. The two that missed both weeks are the two tied for the worst all-play in the league, and that isn’t a coincidence: Pat’s starters are running 23 points a week under what Yahoo expects of them. That’s a roster problem, not a lineup problem — and it’s the one thing in this section that won’t fix itself.
Points left on the bench, this week and season to date.
| Mgr | Wk 2 | Optimal | Left | Season left |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernie | 99.70 | 140.50 | −40.80 | 64.90 |
| Alex | 157.22 | 174.02 | −16.80 | 46.40 |
| Pat | 116.54 | 129.98 | −13.44 | 45.54 |
| Natchez | 153.06 | 167.16 | −14.10 | 27.80 |
| Andrew | 136.96 | 150.58 | −13.62 | 30.12 |
| Logan | 106.08 | 119.38 | −13.30 | 30.10 |
| Jerome | 104.08 | 116.98 | −12.90 | 12.90 |
| Brent | 129.68 | 140.78 | −11.10 | 28.70 |
| Louis | 121.32 | 130.62 | −9.30 | 10.00 |
| Michael | 132.82 | 133.02 | −0.20 | 13.48 |
Rashee Rice — Jerome’s keeper — scored 12.30 on the bench while Deebo Samuel scored 6.50 in his lineup. That one swap is worth 5.80, nearly three times the 2.00 he lost by. After a perfect lineup in Week 1, the one week he blinked cost him the game.
Tetairoa McMillan scored 15.10 on the bench while Jameson Williams scored 5.30 at flex. That’s 9.80, three times the 3.14 he lost to Michael by. Brent is 0–2 with a better all-play than three teams above him.
Last week’s preview said, in bold, to start Chuba Hubbard. Hubbard scored 16.40 on the bench. So did Travis Kelce (25.10) and Josh Downs (14.20). Ernie left 40.80 on the bench in a week he scored 99.70, the lowest in the league — and at 64.90 on the season, he’s left more points unstarted than any manager has lost a game by. Even the optimal lineup (140.50) loses to Natchez, so this one didn’t flip the result. It just made it ugly.
0.20 points left on the bench. His Week 2 lineup was all but perfect, and it’s the reason he beat Brent: identical-strength rosters, one of them started correctly.
| Mgr | Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael | 13.28 | 0.20 | Fixed it |
| Pat | 32.10 | 13.44 | Better, still benched 23.88 of Shough |
| Alex | 29.60 | 16.80 | Better, and doesn’t need to be |
| Jerome | 0.00 | 12.90 | Broke it — and it cost him the game |
| Ernie | 24.10 | 40.80 | Worse, after being told |
Only visible across weeks: the player sat when he went off, then started when he didn’t.
Pat is on this list twice. It’s the lineup equivalent of buying high and selling low, in both directions at once.
Last week, draft slot correlated −0.85 with points. We said it would regress. It did.
Week 2 on its own showed no draft-slot effect at all — the back half of the draft actually outscored the front half, 129.09 to 122.40. Season to date, the gap has shrunk from 28.8 points a week to about 11.
What’s left is mostly one outlier: Alex at slot 1 with a 325.28. Take him out and the front five average 263.37 — within ten points of the back five. The draft-order argument can wait. The Alex argument cannot.
| Round | Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Two weeks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20.35 | 22.89 | 21.62 |
| 2 | 26.88 | 19.83 | 23.35 |
| 3 | 13.35 | 10.56 | 11.96 |
| 4 | 18.51 | 13.08 | 15.79 |
| 5 | 14.68 | 12.71 | 13.70 |
Round 2 came back to earth and Round 1 took the Week 2 lead. But Round 3 was the worst round in the draft both weeks, and it got worse: A.J. Brown, Nico Collins and Brock Bowers all scored zero in Week 2. The one Week 1 read that has fully held up is that the third round was a trap.
How much of each Week 2 score came from one NFL offense.
| Mgr | Stack | Wk 2 share | What happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louis | Buffalo ×5 | 68.1% | 82.62 on Thursday; 38.70 from everyone else |
| Natchez | Dallas ×2 | 43.2% | Dak 30.76 + CeeDee 35.30 |
| Brent | Seattle ×2 | 39.7% | JSN 44.50 carried a 0–2 team |
| Jerome | San Francisco ×2 | 35.0% | Purdy 29.98, Deebo 6.50 |
| Ernie | Baltimore ×3 | 23.4% | Flowers out; last week it was 47.9% |
The single point of failure on Louis’s roster isn’t Josh Allen — it’s everything that isn’t Josh Allen. Allen has been the best player in the league (81.48 over two weeks). But Nacua, Collins and RJ Harvey all sat out, and the non-Buffalo half of the lineup has nothing behind it.
Natchez found his stack. His biggest group by headcount is three Jaguars, and they did almost nothing. The two Cowboys did 66.06. Same lesson as last week: count the touches, not the helmets.
Ernie’s went the other direction. Baltimore was 47.9% of his Week 1 score. With Zay Flowers out, it was 23.4% of a 99.70 — and Flowers is out again for Week 3.
| NFL team | Pts | Share | Held by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo | 195.5 | 7.4% | Louis, Pat, Alex |
| Dallas | 163.9 | 6.2% | Natchez, Brent, Pat |
| Detroit | 161.1 | 6.1% | Alex, Andrew, Brent, Michael |
| San Francisco | 156.6 | 5.9% | Alex, Jerome, Michael, Pat |
| Baltimore | 152.8 | 5.8% | Ernie, Brent |
Buffalo has been EPSOFF’s top offense both weeks. Alex holds a piece of it too — DJ Moore — and that piece scored 23.00 on his bench in Week 1 and −0.10 in his lineup in Week 2.
| Player | Mgr | Pts | Proj |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen, QB | Louis | 44.82 | 25.23 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR | Brent | 44.50 | 20.12 |
| Davante Adams, WR | Alex | 41.50 | 15.04 |
| CeeDee Lamb, WR | Natchez | 35.30 | 18.09 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR | Andrew | 35.20 | 18.68 |
| Jonathan Taylor, RB | Alex | 32.20 | 19.20 |
| Patrick Mahomes, QB Bench | Andrew | 29.48 | 19.10 |
| Travis Kelce, TE Bench | Ernie | 25.10 | 10.22 |
Andrew has benched 53.14 points of Patrick Mahomes in two weeks and is 2–0 anyway. At some point the Round 14 backup is going to have to get a start.
| Player | Mgr | Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | Louis | 36.66 | 44.82 | 81.48 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Brent | 28.20 | 44.50 | 72.70 |
| Kenneth Walker III | Andrew | 40.10 | 27.30 | 67.40 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Alex | 40.60 | 24.30 | 64.90 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | Andrew | 28.70 | 35.20 | 63.90 |
Andrew has two of the league’s five best players through two weeks — plus Mahomes on the bench. The biggest swings run the other way: Davante Adams went 5.60 → 41.50; Caleb Williams went 39.26 → 10.22 and is doubtful for Week 3; Ashton Jeanty 36.20 → 10.80; Justin Jefferson 31.20 → 8.50; Ja’Marr Chase 3.20 → 26.50. If you traded on Week 1 alone, you’d have sold Chase and bought Caleb.
Points above or below the league average at each slot, Weeks 1–2 combined.
| Mgr | QB | RB | WR | TE | FLEX | K | DEF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex | +5.6 | +52.8 | −33.8 | +0.5 | +43.8 | −0.1 | −8.2 |
| Andrew | +1.0 | −21.9 | +19.3 | −8.2 | +35.0 | −11.1 | +10.2 |
| Louis | +37.6 | +0.1 | −22.5 | +19.8 | −8.5 | +1.4 | −6.2 |
| Michael | −19.0 | −1.0 | +31.7 | +4.3 | −5.3 | −12.1 | +11.2 |
| Natchez | +2.8 | −18.2 | +19.8 | +19.9 | −10.6 | +3.9 | −8.2 |
| Brent | −19.2 | +19.3 | +29.5 | −21.4 | −16.6 | −2.1 | +11.8 |
| Jerome | +10.2 | +10.3 | −28.6 | +2.5 | −10.4 | −0.1 | +5.8 |
| Ernie | −0.1 | +8.3 | +4.8 | −9.7 | −15.9 | +3.9 | −9.2 |
| Pat | −8.5 | −17.2 | −2.0 | −21.3 | +3.6 | +1.4 | −4.8 |
| Logan | −10.5 | −33.0 | −18.3 | +13.4 | −14.6 | +14.9 | −2.2 |
Alex’s season is two running backs: Gibbs and Taylor are +52.8 above the league at RB, and his flex is another +43.8. His receivers are the worst in the league at −33.8 and it does not matter. Louis’s whole edge is one position — Allen is worth +37.6 at QB. Logan’s best position, two weeks in, is kicker. Saquon and Achane, a first- and second-round pick, are −33.0 at running back, the worst unit in the league.
A slot where the team beat (or trailed) the league by 5+ points in both weeks. One week is a player having a game. Both weeks is how the roster is built.
Only three managers have two or more persistent strengths: Alex, Louis and Andrew. They are also the three best all-play records in the league.
| Cost | Mgr | Keeper | Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R2 | Louis | Josh Allen | 36.66 | 44.82 | 81.48 |
| R2 | Alex | Jonathan Taylor | 28.60 | 32.20 | 60.80 |
| R8 | Brent | Javonte Williams | 25.20 | 8.00 | 33.20 |
| R5 | Ernie | Zay Flowers | 30.00 | OUT | 30.00 |
| R9 | Michael | Cam Skattebo | 17.10 | 10.00 | 27.10 |
| R7 | Natchez | Emeka Egbuka | 11.30 | 10.30* | 21.60 |
| R6 | Jerome | Rashee Rice | 9.90 | 12.30* | 22.20 |
| R10 | Logan | Quinshon Judkins | 7.50 | 10.30 | 17.80 |
| R3 | Andrew | Drake London | 5.50 | 8.90 | 14.40 |
| R11 | Pat | Kyle Pitts Sr. | 0.00 | Dropped | 0.00 |
* scored on the bench.
Josh Allen at an R2 cost is the best keep in the league by 20 points, and the two R2 keepers are the only ones clearing 30 a week. Andrew’s R3 Drake London has 14.40 in two games — the most expensive disappointment on the list — and Andrew is 2–0 anyway. Two managers have now benched their own keeper: Natchez (Egbuka) and Jerome (Rice), and Jerome’s cost him the game.
Two weeks in, still zero trades. Louis made his first roster move of the season Sunday night — Stafford out, Konata Mumpfield in — and started Mumpfield at flex (2.20) over Chris Godwin (9.30). The trade market has never been more obvious: Alex needs a quarterback, Louis needs receivers, and Andrew has a spare Mahomes.
Yahoo projections for lineups as set Monday night. Waivers haven’t run and nobody has touched a lineup yet, so read these as a starting line, not a verdict.
The first real threat to Alex. Michael (1–1) has the best-set lineup in the league — his projection is already optimal. Alex (2–0) is starting a doubtful Caleb Williams (9.44 proj) with no other quarterback on the roster, and a questionable DJ Moore. He can find 3.18 by starting Jalen Coker and Bhayshul Tuten, but the real fix is on the waiver wire.
Edge: Michael by ~12 — unless Alex finds a QB by SundayBoth 1–1. Louis is without Nacua, Collins and Harvey and currently has Konata Mumpfield projected at 1.68 in his flex. Starting Godwin and Pollard over Shakir and Mumpfield is worth 10.46. Logan is starting a questionable Saquon and is otherwise close to optimal.
Edge: Logan by ~20 — the author notes this with no confidence whatsoeverAndrew (2–0) vs Ernie (1–1). Ernie has 5.06 sitting on his bench again: Josh Downs, Travis Kelce and Chuba Hubbard all project higher than the Addison / Odunze / Kraft trio he’s starting. We said it last week. We’re saying it again. Andrew can pick up 2.04 with MarShawn Lloyd over Croskey-Merritt.
Edge: Andrew by ~9 — closer to ~4 if Ernie starts his best playersThe unluckiest team in the league (Brent, 0–2, −0.89) against the luckiest (Natchez, 2–0, +0.89). Brent’s lineup is already optimal. Natchez is close — 1.59 available if Dowdle and Price get the nod over Aaron Jones and Etienne, but both are questionable.
Edge: Brent by ~6 — regression, arriving on scheduleLoser goes to 0–3. Pat is starting a doubtful Jayden Daniels (7.45 proj), a doubtful Dallas Goedert (4.66) and a questionable Mike Evans, with Tyler Shough (18.25) and Tee Higgins (14.39) on the bench. Fixing it is worth 11.39. Jerome has 5.91 of his own: Jeremiyah Love (16.79) on the bench behind Deebo Samuel (10.88). Again.
Edge: Jerome by ~17 — Pat can cut it to ~6 by SundayThe Tape is serialized. Every storyline that opens here stays open until it resolves, and gets a new beat each week — so by December this table is the whole season, told in the order it actually happened.
| Thread | Opened | Week 1 | Week 2 | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft slot decides your week | Wk 1 | r = −0.85 | +0.07 alone; −0.54 season | Fading |
| Round 3 is a trap | Wk 1 | 13.35 avg, worst round | 10.56, worst again; 3 zeros | Confirmed |
| Round 2 is the best round | Wk 1 | 26.88 | 19.83; Round 1 led | Regressed |
| Buffalo is carrying Louis | Wk 1 | 46.7% of score, won | 68.1% of score, lost | Growing risk |
| Jerome is getting robbed | Wk 1 | Perfect lineup, lost by 1.82 | Benched keeper, lost by 2.00 | Half robbed |
| Natchez is a fraud | Wk 1 | 2–7 all-play, won | 8–1 all-play, 153.06 | Withdrawn |
| Ernie, start Chuba Hubbard | Wk 1 | Benched, 24.70 | Benched, 16.40 | Still benched |
| Late QB is free money | Wk 1 | Caleb 39.26, Mahomes 23.66 (bench) | Caleb 10.22, Mahomes 29.48 (bench) | Mahomes only |
| Pat’s bench | Wk 1 | 32.10 left | 13.44 left; benched Shough 23.88 | Improving |
| Alex vs. DJ Moore | Wk 2 | Benched him: 23.00 | Started him: −0.10 | Inverted |
| Somebody make a trade | Wk 1 | 0 trades | 0 trades | Open |
| Can anyone beat Alex? | Wk 1 | 9–0 all-play | 18–0 all-play | Open |
Twelve threads open, none resolved yet. A thread closes when it’s been settled two weeks running — then it moves to a closed-arcs list with one line on how it ended, and stops taking up space here. Nothing has earned that yet. The Bills thread and the Alex thread are the two most likely to define the season, and they’re pointed in opposite directions.