Season 2026 · Week 3
THE TAPE
What actually happened, past the win-loss column.
Read the Week 3 writeup🏁 Season to date — through Week 3
Luck is real wins minus the wins your scores earned against the whole league.
Alex 3-0 · 479.8226-1+0.11
Andrew 3-0 · 453.8023-4+0.44
Natchez 2-1 · 386.5011-16+0.78
Logan 2-1 · 331.305-22+1.44
Michael 1-2 · 415.6014-13-0.56
Brent 1-2 · 412.9413-14-0.44
Jerome 1-2 · 408.7614-13-0.56
Ernie 1-2 · 395.2011-16-0.22
Louis 1-2 · 373.0412-15-0.33
Pat 0-3 · 342.206-21-0.67
📈 Trend lines — every week so far
Score each week, where it ranked, and the move since last week.
Andrew 152.1 → 137.0 → 164.7▲2+27.8
Alex 168.1 → 157.2 → 154.5▼1-2.7
Jerome 150.3 → 104.1 → 154.4▲6+50.3
Ernie 147.1 → 99.7 → 148.4▲6+48.7
Brent 136.3 → 129.7 → 147.0+17.3
Michael 141.7 → 132.8 → 141.1▼2+8.2
Pat 99.5 → 116.5 → 126.2+9.7
Logan 108.3 → 106.1 → 117.0+10.9
Natchez 121.0 → 153.1 → 112.4▼7-40.6
Louis 165.1 → 121.3 → 86.7▼4-34.7
🧬 Team identity — edges that held every week
One big game at a slot is a player. The same edge 3 weeks running is how the roster is built.
Alex
RB strengthW/R/T strengthWR hole
Michael
WR strengthQB hole
Andrew
WR strengthW/R/T strength
Jerome
WR hole
Pat
TE hole
Brent
WR strengthW/R/T hole
Logan
RB hole
Louis
WR hole
🔁 Benched the wrong week
Sat him when he went off, started him when he didn't.
David Montgomery · PatWk1 bench 30.9 · Wk2 start 4.4
David Montgomery · PatWk1 bench 30.9 · Wk3 start 7.3
DJ Moore · AlexWk1 bench 23.0 · Wk2 start -0.1
Jordan Addison · ErnieWk3 bench 22.0 · Wk2 start 4.1
Luther Burden III · LoganWk3 bench 19.8 · Wk2 start 6.2
📋 Week 3 all-play — your record if you played everyone
One week of schedule is noise. This is the version that isn't.
Andrew 164.729-0(1-0)EARNED
Alex 154.548-1(1-0)EARNED
Jerome 154.387-2(1-0)EARNED
Ernie 148.446-3(0-1)ROBBED
Brent 147.005-4(1-0)EARNED
Michael 141.064-5(0-1)
Pat 126.203-6(0-1)
Logan 116.962-7(1-0)LUCKY
Natchez 112.441-8(0-1)
Louis 86.660-9(0-1)
🪑 The coaching tax — points left on your bench
Every point here was on your roster and you chose not to start it.
Logan 116.96 → 143.48−26.52
Louis 86.66 → 106.96−20.30
Michael 141.06 → 159.68−18.62
Alex 154.54 → 172.24−17.70
Pat 126.20 → 140.70−14.50
Brent 147.00 → 161.36−14.36
Ernie 148.44 → 160.84−12.40
Jerome 154.38 → 166.18−11.80
Natchez 112.44 → 119.38−6.94
Andrew 164.72 → 166.54−1.82
🎲 Did your draft slot decide your week?
r = -0.33
Slots 1–5 averaged 138.20.
Slots 6–10 averaged 132.28.
Slots 6–10 averaged 132.28.
A snake draft is supposed to wash this out. One week is not proof of anything — but it's the number to watch before next August's draft-order argument.
🔗 Roster correlation — how much of you is one NFL team
Headcount isn't exposure. Four players from one team can be a kicker, a defense and two bench bodies. The share is what hurts on a bye.
Alex SF ×422.8% of score
George Kittle, Eddy Pineiro, 49ers, Kaelon Black · 9 NFL teams rostered
Louis Buf ×330.4% of score
Josh Allen, Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir · 10 NFL teams rostered
Ernie Bal ×322.9% of score
Lamar Jackson, Tyler Loop, Zay Flowers · 11 NFL teams rostered
Natchez Jax ×316.0% of score
Parker Washington, Cam Little, Trevor Lawrence · 11 NFL teams rostered
Brent Sea ×230.2% of score
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jason Myers · 11 NFL teams rostered
Jerome SF ×220.6% of score
Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel Sr. · 12 NFL teams rostered
Andrew Ari ×215.7% of score
Michael Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr. · 11 NFL teams rostered
Pat Hou ×210.5% of score
David Montgomery, Dalton Schultz · 12 NFL teams rostered
Logan Cin ×29.4% of score
Evan McPherson, Joe Burrow · 12 NFL teams rostered
Michael LAC ×27.1% of score
Cameron Dicker, Ladd McConkey · 13 NFL teams rostered
🏟️ Which offenses are funding EPSOFF
Det 91.56 from 5 starters6.8%
held by Alex, Andrew, Ernie, Logan, Michael
SF 90.58 from 5 starters6.7%
held by Alex, Jerome, Michael
Dal 89.64 from 5 starters6.6%
held by Brent, Natchez, Pat
NO 79.30 from 4 starters5.9%
held by Brent, Michael, Natchez, Pat
Atl 75.20 from 2 starters5.6%
held by Andrew, Jerome
📐 Where you actually beat the league
Points above or below the league average at each lineup slot.
Andrew
QB -3.9RB +1.1WR +9.6TE +7.5W/R/T +10.4K +6.8DEF -2.0
Alex
QB -4.4RB +22.9WR -8.3TE +9.6W/R/T +7.2K -2.2DEF -5.5
Jerome
QB +12.8RB +18.4WR -11.3TE -1.4W/R/T +7.9K -4.2DEF -3.0
Ernie
QB +2.9RB -3.4WR +2.8TE -0.7W/R/T +8.3K +2.8DEF +0.5
Brent
QB -4.3RB +13.0WR +15.8TE +6.7W/R/T -11.8K -0.2DEF -7.5
Michael
QB -12.2RB +1.3WR +11.7TE -9.2W/R/T -1.0K +0.8DEF +14.4
Pat
QB +6.3RB -2.0WR -8.5TE -10.6W/R/T -3.0K +1.8DEF +7.0
Logan
QB +0.4RB -19.6WR -4.8TE +11.0W/R/T -4.5K +1.8DEF -2.5
Natchez
QB +0.4RB -15.1WR +0.5TE -0.1W/R/T +0.2K -4.2DEF -4.5
Louis
QB +2.0RB -17.0WR -7.1TE -12.8W/R/T -13.9K -3.2DEF +3.5
⭐ Top performances — benched ones included
Jahmyr Gibbs RB · Alex44.90
Bijan Robinson RB · Jerome42.80
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · Brent35.36
Drake London WR · Andrew32.40
Brock Purdy QB · Jerome31.78
Brock Bowers TE · Logan27.60
Garrett Wilson WR · Michael26.70
George Kittle TE · Alex26.20
Box scores pulled from Yahoo league 56928 on 9/29/2026. All-play, optimal-lineup, correlation and positional-edge math computed from starter/bench data in lib/weekly.ts.