Season 2026 · Week 5
THE TAPE
What actually happened, past the win-loss column.
Read the Week 5 writeup🏁 Season to date — through Week 5
Luck is real wins minus the wins your scores earned against the whole league.
Alex 4-1 · 767.5834-11+0.22
Natchez 4-1 · 660.7219-26+1.89
Brent 3-2 · 755.9431-14-0.44
Michael 3-2 · 747.9429-16-0.22
Ernie 3-2 · 707.8625-20+0.22
Andrew 3-2 · 681.7827-180.00
Louis 2-3 · 665.2622-23-0.44
Logan 2-3 · 565.728-37+1.11
Jerome 1-4 · 695.6422-23-1.44
Pat 0-5 · 585.808-37-0.89
📈 Trend lines — every week so far
Score each week, where it ranked, and the move since last week.
Brent 136.3 → 129.7 → 147.0 → 162.1 → 180.9+18.8
Michael 141.7 → 132.8 → 141.1 → 151.5 → 180.9▲1+29.4
Alex 168.1 → 157.2 → 154.5 → 114.5 → 173.3▲6+58.8
Ernie 147.1 → 99.7 → 148.4 → 156.1 → 156.6▼2+0.5
Jerome 150.3 → 104.1 → 154.4 → 131.7 → 155.2▲2+23.4
Louis 165.1 → 121.3 → 86.7 → 150.4 → 141.8▼2-8.6
Natchez 121.0 → 153.1 → 112.4 → 134.1 → 140.1▼2+6.1
Pat 99.5 → 116.5 → 126.2 → 108.7 → 134.9▲2+26.1
Logan 108.3 → 106.1 → 117.0 → 126.5 → 107.9▼1-18.6
Andrew 152.1 → 137.0 → 164.7 → 132.7 → 95.3▼4-37.4
🧬 Team identity — edges that held every week
One big game at a slot is a player. The same edge 5 weeks running is how the roster is built.
Jerome
WR hole
Pat
TE hole
Logan
RB hole
🔁 Benched the wrong week
Sat him when he went off, started him when he didn't.
David Montgomery · PatWk1 bench 30.9 · Wk4 start 4.3
David Montgomery · PatWk1 bench 30.9 · Wk2 start 4.4
Isaiah Likely · LoganWk5 bench 32.4 · Wk2 start 8.3
David Montgomery · PatWk1 bench 30.9 · Wk3 start 7.3
DJ Moore · AlexWk1 bench 23.0 · Wk2 start -0.1
📋 Week 5 all-play — your record if you played everyone
One week of schedule is noise. This is the version that isn't.
Brent 180.929-0(1-0)EARNED
Michael 180.868-1(1-0)EARNED
Alex 173.307-2(1-0)EARNED
Ernie 156.586-3(1-0)EARNED
Jerome 155.165-4(0-1)ROBBED
Louis 141.804-5(0-1)
Natchez 140.143-6(1-0)LUCKY
Pat 134.862-7(0-1)
Logan 107.901-8(0-1)
Andrew 95.280-9(0-1)
🪑 The coaching tax — points left on your bench
Every point here was on your roster and you chose not to start it.
Logan 107.90 → 150.74−42.84
Pat 134.86 → 149.66−14.80
Louis 141.80 → 155.60−13.80
Natchez 140.14 → 151.74−11.60
Jerome 155.16 → 166.56−11.40
Andrew 95.28 → 105.10−9.82
Michael 180.86 → 186.06−5.20
Brent 180.92 → 182.62−1.70
Ernie 156.58 → 156.58PERFECT
Alex 173.30 → 173.30PERFECT
🎲 Did your draft slot decide your week?
r = -0.39
Slots 1–5 averaged 161.55.
Slots 6–10 averaged 131.81.
Slots 6–10 averaged 131.81.
A snake draft is supposed to wash this out. One week is not proof of anything — but it's the number to watch before next August's draft-order argument.
🔗 Roster correlation — how much of you is one NFL team
Headcount isn't exposure. Four players from one team can be a kicker, a defense and two bench bodies. The share is what hurts on a bye.
Natchez Jax ×433.8% of score
Parker Washington, Cam Little, Jaguars, Trevor Lawrence · 9 NFL teams rostered
Pat Min ×329.9% of score
Kyler Murray, Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson · 11 NFL teams rostered
Louis Buf ×327.3% of score
Josh Allen, Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir · 11 NFL teams rostered
Ernie Bal ×318.6% of score
Zay Flowers, Tyler Loop, Lamar Jackson · 12 NFL teams rostered
Andrew Phi ×313.6% of score
Jalen Hurts, Dontayvion Wicks, Darius Cooper · 11 NFL teams rostered
Jerome Cle ×37.1% of score
Browns, Denzel Boston, KC Concepcion Jr. · 11 NFL teams rostered
Logan Cin ×230.2% of score
Joe Burrow, Evan McPherson · 12 NFL teams rostered
Brent Sea ×225.6% of score
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jason Myers · 10 NFL teams rostered
Alex GB ×220.9% of score
Christian Watson, Josh Jacobs · 11 NFL teams rostered
Michael LAC ×23.3% of score
Cameron Dicker, Ladd McConkey · 13 NFL teams rostered
🏟️ Which offenses are funding EPSOFF
LAR 113.72 from 6 starters7.8%
held by Alex, Andrew, Brent, Ernie, Logan, Louis
Det 104.10 from 5 starters7.1%
held by Alex, Andrew, Brent, Ernie, Michael
GB 91.40 from 4 starters6.2%
held by Alex, Andrew, Ernie, Logan
SF 79.66 from 6 starters5.4%
held by Alex, Jerome, Michael, Pat
Cin 76.00 from 6 starters5.2%
held by Alex, Ernie, Logan, Michael, Pat
📐 Where you actually beat the league
Points above or below the league average at each lineup slot.
Brent
QB +3.1RB +6.0WR +13.0TE -8.0W/R/T +0.0K +11.8DEF +8.3
Michael
QB +15.7RB -6.4WR -6.3TE +8.0W/R/T +24.1K -5.3DEF +4.3
Alex
QB -2.2RB -6.4WR +20.1TE -4.5W/R/T +23.5K -4.3DEF +0.3
Ernie
QB +3.1RB -0.4WR -1.5TE +2.3W/R/T +2.9K +2.8DEF +0.8
Jerome
QB -6.6RB +21.1WR -6.7TE +10.1W/R/T -16.5K +5.8DEF +1.3
Louis
QB +10.8RB -12.7WR +10.0TE -8.2W/R/T -12.9K +9.8DEF -1.7
Natchez
QB -9.6RB +3.2WR -17.7TE +9.8W/R/T +13.7K -2.8DEF -3.2
Pat
QB -4.5RB +11.4WR +6.8TE -10.2W/R/T -14.5K -6.3DEF +5.3
Logan
QB +1.4RB -17.9WR -11.2TE +11.2W/R/T -9.3K -4.3DEF -8.7
Andrew
QB -11.2RB +2.2WR -6.6TE -10.4W/R/T -11.4K -7.3DEF -6.7
⭐ Top performances — benched ones included
Jaylen Warren RB · Michael42.80
Jahmyr Gibbs RB · Alex42.20
Drake Maye QB · Michael39.96
Puka Nacua WR · Louis37.70
Bucky Irving RB · Jerome36.50
Christian Watson WR · Alex36.30
Josh Allen QB · Louis35.00
Isaiah Likely TE · LoganBENCHED32.40
Box scores pulled from Yahoo league 56928 on 10/13/2026. All-play, optimal-lineup, correlation and positional-edge math computed from starter/bench data in lib/weekly.ts.