Season 2026 · Week 4
THE TAPE
What actually happened, past the win-loss column.
Read the Week 4 writeup🏁 Season to date — through Week 4
Luck is real wins minus the wins your scores earned against the whole league.
Alex 3-1 · 594.2827-90.00
Andrew 3-1 · 586.5027-90.00
Natchez 3-1 · 520.5816-20+1.22
Brent 2-2 · 575.0222-14-0.44
Michael 2-2 · 567.0821-15-0.33
Ernie 2-2 · 551.2819-17-0.11
Louis 2-2 · 523.4618-180.00
Logan 2-2 · 457.827-29+1.22
Jerome 1-3 · 540.4817-19-0.89
Pat 0-4 · 450.946-30-0.67
📈 Trend lines — every week so far
Score each week, where it ranked, and the move since last week.
Brent 136.3 → 129.7 → 147.0 → 162.1▲4+15.1
Ernie 147.1 → 99.7 → 148.4 → 156.1▲2+7.6
Michael 141.7 → 132.8 → 141.1 → 151.5▲3+10.4
Louis 165.1 → 121.3 → 86.7 → 150.4▲6+63.8
Natchez 121.0 → 153.1 → 112.4 → 134.1▲4+21.6
Andrew 152.1 → 137.0 → 164.7 → 132.7▼5-32.0
Jerome 150.3 → 104.1 → 154.4 → 131.7▼4-22.7
Logan 108.3 → 106.1 → 117.0 → 126.5+9.6
Alex 168.1 → 157.2 → 154.5 → 114.5▼7-40.1
Pat 99.5 → 116.5 → 126.2 → 108.7▼3-17.5
🧬 Team identity — edges that held every week
One big game at a slot is a player. The same edge 4 weeks running is how the roster is built.
Alex
RB strengthWR hole
Pat
TE hole
Jerome
WR hole
Logan
RB hole
🔁 Benched the wrong week
Sat him when he went off, started him when he didn't.
David Montgomery · PatWk1 bench 30.9 · Wk4 start 4.3
David Montgomery · PatWk1 bench 30.9 · Wk2 start 4.4
David Montgomery · PatWk1 bench 30.9 · Wk3 start 7.3
DJ Moore · AlexWk1 bench 23.0 · Wk2 start -0.1
Drake Maye · MichaelWk4 bench 29.2 · Wk3 start 6.8
📋 Week 4 all-play — your record if you played everyone
One week of schedule is noise. This is the version that isn't.
Brent 162.089-0(1-0)EARNED
Ernie 156.088-1(1-0)EARNED
Michael 151.487-2(1-0)EARNED
Louis 150.426-3(1-0)EARNED
Natchez 134.085-4(1-0)EARNED
Andrew 132.704-5(0-1)
Jerome 131.723-6(0-1)
Logan 126.522-7(0-1)
Alex 114.461-8(0-1)
Pat 108.740-9(0-1)
🪑 The coaching tax — points left on your bench
Every point here was on your roster and you chose not to start it.
Jerome 131.72 → 164.62−32.90
Logan 126.52 → 157.32−30.80
Pat 108.74 → 135.34−26.60
Brent 162.08 → 188.56−26.48
Ernie 156.08 → 179.28−23.20
Alex 114.46 → 134.06−19.60
Natchez 134.08 → 148.40−14.32
Louis 150.42 → 157.22−6.80
Michael 151.48 → 157.06−5.58
Andrew 132.70 → 135.60−2.90
🎲 Did your draft slot decide your week?
r = -0.15
Slots 1–5 averaged 142.95.
Slots 6–10 averaged 130.70.
Slots 6–10 averaged 130.70.
A snake draft is supposed to wash this out. One week is not proof of anything — but it's the number to watch before next August's draft-order argument.
🔗 Roster correlation — how much of you is one NFL team
Headcount isn't exposure. Four players from one team can be a kicker, a defense and two bench bodies. The share is what hurts on a bye.
Ernie Bal ×335.0% of score
Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers, Tyler Loop · 12 NFL teams rostered
Natchez Jax ×322.1% of score
Trevor Lawrence, Parker Washington, Cam Little · 9 NFL teams rostered
Louis Buf ×314.8% of score
Josh Allen, Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir · 11 NFL teams rostered
Andrew KC ×240.2% of score
Patrick Mahomes, Kenneth Walker III · 10 NFL teams rostered
Brent Dal ×227.9% of score
Javonte Williams, George Pickens · 11 NFL teams rostered
Logan Cin ×225.1% of score
Joe Burrow, Evan McPherson · 12 NFL teams rostered
Alex SF ×221.8% of score
George Kittle, Eddy Pineiro · 10 NFL teams rostered
Jerome SF ×216.0% of score
Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel Sr. · 13 NFL teams rostered
Michael LAC ×27.9% of score
Cameron Dicker, Ladd McConkey · 13 NFL teams rostered
Pat Hou ×26.6% of score
David Montgomery, Dalton Schultz · 12 NFL teams rostered
🏟️ Which offenses are funding EPSOFF
LAR 104.28 from 6 starters7.6%
held by Alex, Andrew, Brent, Ernie, Logan, Louis
Dal 98.60 from 4 starters7.2%
held by Brent, Natchez, Pat
Car 97.06 from 3 starters7.1%
held by Alex, Brent, Ernie
Cin 83.22 from 5 starters6.1%
held by Ernie, Logan, Michael, Pat
Bal 82.58 from 5 starters6.0%
held by Brent, Ernie, Louis
📐 Where you actually beat the league
Points above or below the league average at each lineup slot.
Brent
QB -7.5RB +17.7WR -8.2TE +0.6W/R/T +25.1K -4.7DEF +2.3
Ernie
QB -0.3RB +14.5WR +1.2TE -7.8W/R/T +19.6K -2.1DEF -5.7
Michael
QB +4.4RB +1.6WR -5.0TE +11.1W/R/T -1.1K +1.9DEF +1.8
Louis
QB +1.3RB -7.3WR +28.7TE -9.6W/R/T -5.7K +5.8DEF +0.3
Natchez
QB -5.6RB -0.9WR +11.0TE -1.2W/R/T -11.7K +3.9DEF +1.8
Andrew
QB -1.7RB +7.9WR -0.3TE +0.4W/R/T -5.5K -3.1DEF -1.7
Jerome
QB +1.9RB -19.9WR -9.1TE -2.2W/R/T +12.6K +5.8DEF +5.8
Logan
QB +7.5RB -9.9WR -6.1TE +9.3W/R/T -8.3K -5.2DEF +2.3
Alex
QB +2.8RB +9.4WR -17.4TE +7.7W/R/T -17.4K -4.2DEF -3.2
Pat
QB -2.8RB -12.9WR +5.4TE -8.4W/R/T -7.5K +1.9DEF -3.7
⭐ Top performances — benched ones included
Tetairoa McMillan WR · Brent45.20
CeeDee Lamb WR · Natchez41.30
Kyren Williams RB · Ernie39.70
Kenneth Walker III RB · Andrew35.90
Javonte Williams RB · Brent33.80
Nico Collins WR · Louis32.80
Bijan Robinson RB · Jerome32.70
Kyle Monangai RB · BrentBENCHED32.00
Box scores pulled from Yahoo league 56928 on 10/6/2026. All-play, optimal-lineup, correlation and positional-edge math computed from starter/bench data in lib/weekly.ts.