Season 2026 · Week 7
THE TAPE
What actually happened, past the win-loss column.
Read the Week 7 writeup🏁 Season to date — through Week 7
Luck is real wins minus the wins your scores earned against the whole league.
Alex 5-2 · 1001.2442-21+0.33
Michael 5-2 · 984.9835-28+1.11
Ernie 5-2 · 978.0839-24+0.67
Brent 4-3 · 1025.3244-19-0.89
Louis 4-3 · 932.5636-270.00
Natchez 4-3 · 868.6220-43+1.78
Andrew 3-4 · 891.3630-33-0.33
Logan 3-4 · 815.5217-46+1.11
Jerome 1-6 · 931.1230-33-2.33
Pat 1-6 · 852.6622-41-1.44
📈 Trend lines — every week so far
Score each week, where it ranked, and the move since last week.
Brent 136.3 → 129.7 → 147.0 → 162.1 → 180.9 → 120.7 → 148.7▲5+28.0
Ernie 147.1 → 99.7 → 148.4 → 156.1 → 156.6 → 126.8 → 143.4▲2+16.6
Pat 99.5 → 116.5 → 126.2 → 108.7 → 134.9 → 127.8 → 139.1+11.3
Jerome 150.3 → 104.1 → 154.4 → 131.7 → 155.2 → 99.9 → 135.6▲4+35.8
Louis 165.1 → 121.3 → 86.7 → 150.4 → 141.8 → 139.4 → 127.9▼4-11.5
Logan 108.3 → 106.1 → 117.0 → 126.5 → 107.9 → 124.7 → 125.1▼1+0.3
Michael 141.7 → 132.8 → 141.1 → 151.5 → 180.9 → 118.6 → 118.4-0.2
Andrew 152.1 → 137.0 → 164.7 → 132.7 → 95.3 → 94.1 → 115.5▲1+21.4
Natchez 121.0 → 153.1 → 112.4 → 134.1 → 140.1 → 92.9 → 115.0▲1+22.1
Alex 168.1 → 157.2 → 154.5 → 114.5 → 173.3 → 132.0 → 101.6▼8-30.4
🧬 Team identity — edges that held every week
One big game at a slot is a player. The same edge 7 weeks running is how the roster is built.
Pat
TE hole
🔁 Benched the wrong week
Sat him when he went off, started him when he didn't.
Isaiah Likely · LoganWk5 bench 32.4 · Wk7 start 3.2
David Montgomery · PatWk1 bench 30.9 · Wk4 start 4.3
David Montgomery · PatWk1 bench 30.9 · Wk2 start 4.4
Isaiah Likely · LoganWk5 bench 32.4 · Wk2 start 8.3
Cam Skattebo · MichaelWk7 bench 23.6 · Wk6 start 0.0
📋 Week 7 all-play — your record if you played everyone
One week of schedule is noise. This is the version that isn't.
Brent 148.709-0(1-0)EARNED
Ernie 143.428-1(1-0)EARNED
Pat 139.107-2(1-0)EARNED
Jerome 135.626-3(0-1)ROBBED
Louis 127.905-4(1-0)EARNED
Logan 125.064-5(0-1)
Michael 118.443-6(1-0)LUCKY
Andrew 115.502-7(0-1)
Natchez 114.981-8(0-1)
Alex 101.620-9(0-1)
🪑 The coaching tax — points left on your bench
Every point here was on your roster and you chose not to start it.
Michael 118.44 → 149.54−31.10
Logan 125.06 → 153.38−28.32
Alex 101.62 → 121.32−19.70
Louis 127.90 → 141.30−13.40
Ernie 143.42 → 153.82−10.40
Brent 148.70 → 156.40−7.70
Andrew 115.50 → 122.50−7.00
Jerome 135.62 → 139.82−4.20
Pat 139.10 → 139.52−0.42
Natchez 114.98 → 114.98PERFECT
🎲 Did your draft slot decide your week?
r = 0.03
Slots 1–5 averaged 131.45.
Slots 6–10 averaged 122.62.
Slots 6–10 averaged 122.62.
A snake draft is supposed to wash this out. One week is not proof of anything — but it's the number to watch before next August's draft-order argument.
🔗 Roster correlation — how much of you is one NFL team
Headcount isn't exposure. Four players from one team can be a kicker, a defense and two bench bodies. The share is what hurts on a bye.
Ernie Bal ×325.6% of score
Zay Flowers, Tyler Loop, Lamar Jackson · 11 NFL teams rostered
Alex SF ×316.5% of score
George Kittle, Eddy Pineiro, 49ers · 9 NFL teams rostered
Louis Buf ×30.0% of score
Josh Allen, Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir · 11 NFL teams rostered
Natchez Dal ×241.9% of score
Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb · 10 NFL teams rostered
Brent Sea ×226.8% of score
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jason Myers · 11 NFL teams rostered
Michael NE ×224.9% of score
Drake Maye, Patriots · 11 NFL teams rostered
Logan GB ×222.3% of score
Jordan Love, Matthew Golden · 12 NFL teams rostered
Pat Min ×216.8% of score
Kyler Murray, Justin Jefferson · 12 NFL teams rostered
Andrew KC ×215.8% of score
Patrick Mahomes, Kenneth Walker III · 12 NFL teams rostered
Jerome Hou ×215.6% of score
Woody Marks, Ka'imi Fairbairn · 12 NFL teams rostered
🏟️ Which offenses are funding EPSOFF
Chi 95.72 from 5 starters7.5%
held by Alex, Brent, Logan, Louis, Natchez
Dal 87.68 from 4 starters6.9%
held by Brent, Natchez, Pat
Det 75.90 from 4 starters6.0%
held by Alex, Andrew, Brent, Michael
Min 72.70 from 7 starters5.7%
held by Andrew, Jerome, Michael, Natchez, Pat
LV 64.80 from 4 starters5.1%
held by Ernie, Logan, Louis
📐 Where you actually beat the league
Points above or below the league average at each lineup slot.
Brent
QB -0.3RB -5.0WR +10.2TE +6.6W/R/T +11.5K -0.6DEF -0.8
Ernie
QB -1.3RB -4.8WR +17.3TE +1.5W/R/T +7.0K -1.6DEF -1.9
Pat
QB -3.9RB +8.9WR +9.6TE -9.3W/R/T -1.4K +5.5DEF +2.6
Jerome
QB -3.8RB +11.8WR -3.8TE +0.2W/R/T -4.5K +2.5DEF +6.2
Louis
QB +2.1RB +23.6WR -17.4TE -3.8W/R/T +7.2K -3.5DEF -7.3
Logan
QB -0.8RB +6.6WR +6.0TE +0.0W/R/T -11.4K +0.5DEF -2.9
Michael
QB +10.6RB -2.6WR -13.4TE -10.5W/R/T +5.6K -3.5DEF +5.2
Andrew
QB -11.3RB -19.4WR +16.2TE -0.2W/R/T -4.0K +4.5DEF +2.6
Natchez
QB +5.0RB -24.5WR -5.2TE +13.8W/R/T -5.8K +3.5DEF +1.1
Alex
QB +3.8RB +4.9WR -19.9TE +1.5W/R/T -3.9K -7.0DEF -4.8
⭐ Top performances — benched ones included
Tony Pollard RB · Louis39.50
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · Brent31.80
Tee Higgins WR · Pat30.80
Zay Flowers WR · Ernie29.70
Drake Maye QB · Michael29.44
Joe Burrow QB · LoganBENCHED29.38
Bucky Irving RB · Jerome29.00
Trey McBride TE · Natchez27.10
Box scores pulled from Yahoo league 56928 on 10/27/2026. All-play, optimal-lineup, correlation and positional-edge math computed from starter/bench data in lib/weekly.ts.